How and why to learn systems thinking?

We live in a world of systems - starting from the human body and ending with the socio-economic structure of society. Everything that exists in the form of a process is a system, because not a single process can occur chaotically, it must obey certain patterns, maintaining a balance between the productivity and return of internal elements.

If we think about what systematicity is, the following synonyms will come to mind: “discipline,” “planning,” “thoughtfulness,” “coherence,” etc. This concept should not be confused with systematicity, which involves repeating an action over a certain period of time. But what happens if we turn to the more complex concept of “systems thinking”? To do this, let’s introduce another term – “thinking”.

Thinking is a concept inextricably linked with consciousness, which functions with the goal of understanding the world around us, identifying images and building connections between them, representing, designating, determining their capabilities, measuring and applying them [V. Kemerov, V. Matskevich]. This term is classified according to many criteria, many of which you can see in our article “Thinking: what it is and how it happens.” One of the most important types of thinking is systems thinking.

In his speech to an audience of managers, the head of Sber, German Gref, expressed the opinion that the lack of systems thinking (for him personally) is a “catastrophe in life.” At the same time, the head of the largest bank in Russia points to two key components of this concept: the ability to analyze (immersion in details, structuring the problem being studied) and the ability to synthesize (abstracting from details, switching to a larger scale) [G. Gref, 2018].

Of course, it is difficult to disagree with the fact that systems thinking is a truly important skill, preferably present in a person’s mind, learned by him and used in everyday practice. However, don’t be sad if you don’t have it, because you can learn it. One of the best ways to do this is to take our online program “Cognitive Science”, devoting about 15-25 minutes a day to which, in two months, you will develop your cognitive abilities, improve various types of thinking (including systemic thinking) with the help of non-boring training for the brain.

Returning to the definition indicated by G. Gref, let’s make a small amendment - of course, systems thinking is much broader and more voluminous and includes not only the two indicated components. Below we will expand on this term more broadly, tell you how to train this type of thinking and whether it is worth doing it at all.

What does it mean to think systemically?

Initially, it is necessary to point out that systems thinking is a skill that will be needed in absolutely any situation, and here’s why:

firstly, systems thinking is not a specific skill, not some isolated practice that helps you in the field of professional activity; this is a kind of lifestyle, a guide for any actions, because, having such an operational model of behavior in your arsenal, you influence the entire system of your reality, its subsystems, and, in principle, begin to treat them as structural phenomena with their own features functioning, which is already important;
secondly, it is no coincidence that most employers of serious companies and organizations that instill a culture of leadership include this particular skill in the list of required competencies, because they consider it decisive for a potential employee, because the ability to discern a problem, understand what led to it, how to get away from it, which factors are destabilizing and which are auxiliary, has acquired enormous importance today;
thirdly, systems thinking will definitely help people who have not found their path, calling, meaning to systematize internal life processes and achieve rationalization and a way out of the situation, because often we simply do not realize the chaos and inconsistency of ideas about our own world, which precisely levels out the concept we are considering;
fourthly, in a world where globalization has set in and one system has become dependent on another, and that, in turn, on a third, Barry Richmond, a leader in the field of systems thinking and system dynamics, as well as the author of this concept, points out that that this phenomenon is an indispensable method of cognition, a kind of separate language that helps to bring together heterogeneous and previously unrelated systems [B. Richmond, 1994].

Now let us dwell on the essence of systems thinking, in particular on its first part - the definition of “systemic”.

It would be wrong to ignore the pioneer in the field of systems thinking, the aforementioned Barry Richmond, who proposed the following definition: “The art and science of forming reliable connections in behavior through deep immersion in understanding the internal structures of a phenomenon.” In addition, the author also cites the expression “the ability to see both an individual tree and a forest, maintaining visual contact with both parts at the same time” [B. Richmond, 1994].

And indeed, the most important thing that we can highlight in systems thinking is the ability to look at both the details, details, little things of an object or phenomenon (the induction method), and to preserve its holistic picture, without losing the sense of scale (the deduction method).

In the scientific work of American scientists from the private Stevens Institute of Technology, a number of definitions are analyzed in order to achieve the most correct and complete one. The authors come up with the following terminological explanation of systems thinking: “it is a set of synergistic analytical skills used to improve the ability to identify and understand systems, predict their behavior, and the ability to change them in order to achieve desired results. All these skills work as a system.”

The authors also point out three mandatory components of any system:

Elements (they will characterize the system).
Interaction of elements (connections that create relationships between elements).
Purpose (what the system exists for, which can be easily understood) [RD Arnold, JP Wade, 2015].

Now let's look at any system , for example, a front garden:

Soil, shrubs, flower seedlings, decorative items, rain periodically falling from the sky, sunlight, air, a dog running through the seedlings, insects living within the front garden - all this and much more are system-forming elements.
If the bushes are invaded by red-cheeked ants, this can destroy them, but if the owner of the front garden decides to get rid of them, the pests will die, but the chemical can affect the flowers, causing them damage, although its effect may not have any effect at all if there is constant rain wash off the ant repellent. Thus, a large number of connections are created between elements and they all influence each other.
The owner may be planning to win a competition for decorating country front gardens, and therefore it is important for him to maintain a beautiful appearance, and therefore a healthy ecosystem of his landscape mini-project. However, it also happens that the owner does not come to the dacha very often, and he is not at all worried about the condition of the front garden - he has completely given it up to the elements. As you can see, in both cases there are completely different goals.

Looking again at the second point, we can conclude that systems thinking is effective precisely because it teaches you to see those connections that you previously seemed not to notice, but the significance of which is no less important than those that obvious and obvious. Of course, influencing existing and emerging systems is a key property for a person. But in order to influence correctly (i.e., within the framework of the set goal), it is not enough to simply take and study the structure; you need to understand what real synergistic effect occurs in the relationships between the elements of the system [Ts. Tserenov].

A fairly extensive literature is devoted to the topic of systems thinking. We list the most striking and popular of them:

"The ABCs of Systems Thinking" by Donella Meadows.
“Systems thinking 2020”, A. I. Levenchuk.
“Systems thinking: the boundaries of mental models and a systemic vision of the world,” E. V. Ksenchuk.
“The art of systems thinking. Essential knowledge of systems and creative problem solving”, J. O'Connor, I. McDermott.

You may already be familiar with some of these books or have read something else on systems thinking. We will be glad to see your feedback in the comments.

We wanted to focus your attention more on the last book. Let's look at it in a little more detail, because... It is she who is considered a classic in mastering the skill in question.

General conclusions

From the specified content of the requirements for the “Systems Thinking” competency, we can conclude that the development of such a competency is highly complex. It should be honestly noted that systems thinking is a complex competency that is difficult to develop, but a very necessary and valuable human ability. We develop individual components of such a skill over a long period of time. When we learn to solve problems at school, write term papers and dissertations at a university, analyze existing information in detail, propose new conclusions, we really form our personal foundation for such competence.

At the same time, with consistent systematic work in the direction of your development:

understanding the criteria and indicators of the Systems Thinking competency,
using advanced development technologies such as business simulations, business games and training formats,
achieving awareness in personal improvement,

It is possible to master the art of making high-quality decisions and overcome many of the limitations of the “limits to growth.”
Where is the best place to start? First understand the current level of competency development. To do this, look at the results of your last participation in the Assessment Center or undergo an express self-diagnosis, see Appendix 2. The next step is to formulate and implement a systematic personal development plan!

Maxim Chernyshov, May 2022 #systemicThinking, #DecisionMaking, #managerialCompetencies

What will Joseph O'Connor tell you?

Let us briefly describe the basics of systems thinking outlined in the book by O'Connor and McDermott.

Any system can be represented as being composed of its fractional parts (analysis), which will make it possible to understand it somewhat more simply, and reuniting them again (synthesis) will give an understanding of how they interact with each other. At the same time, the size for each system should be different - “bigger does not mean better.” This is especially useful to understand when building an organizational system, choosing the optimal number of team members.

The complexity of a system is one of its important indicators. Complexity can be detailed (when there are too many components; an example is a mosaic) or dynamic (when there are too many connections between components; an example is chess). At the same time, the latter systems are most often more stable due to the complexity of interdependence between elements, however, they are also subject to change due to the lever effect.

The effect is that it is necessary to find the weakest element of the system, the point of its development, and direct changes specifically to it, which will lead to improvement of the entire system. Thus, observing the ineffectiveness of an employee, the manager seeks to improve his qualifications, additional leave or replacement.

What changes can systems undergo? O'Connor cites the concept of “feedback loops” (when we influence the system, we return to the starting point, but in a modified form) or, in other words, ways of influencing the system:

Reinforcing feedback. Like a snowball, every change leads to even more changes. For example, when we introduce new equipment, we see an ever-increasing increase in product output.
Balancing feedback. A restraining connection leading to the opposite state, because it is precisely this that is recognized as equilibrium, ideal. For example, when a person’s body temperature rises, he sweats, perspiration cools the body, thereby returning the temperature to an equilibrium state.
Balancing feedforward communication. Anticipation of an event becomes its cause. Surely you have seen this yourself, when rumors and fake news leaked in the news about the destabilization of the profitability of a financial institution, and investors immediately took their money to avoid risks, even if initially there were no signs of trouble.
Reinforcing feedforward communication. Anticipation of events leads to the opposite state of the system. For example, if you threaten your employee with dismissal, this may motivate him to work harder, making him more valuable to the company.

All of these types of changes cannot be considered effective if the emphasis is placed on one of the components of the system. You should always remember about their stable relationship, about the balance that leads to efficiency.

The second part of the book is devoted to mental models - beliefs, values, ideals (they together are also a system) that a particular person believes in and which determine the orientation of systemic thinking. First, the author considers the methods of their formation, in particular:

crossing out (part of the experience that seems unimportant to us is not retained in memory);
construction (we ourselves “complete” our ideas about this or that phenomenon, even if they are not true);
distortion (it is common for the human mind to manipulate existing knowledge, understating or exaggerating it);
generalization (drawing conclusions from insufficient information, constructing false stereotypes).

If you want to achieve the rationality of systems thinking, remember the indicated methods of constructing mental models, try to be objective and level out those that distort reality, remember and analyze all the outcomes of events without reference to specific emotional reactions.

The book also discusses the problem of cause-and-effect relationships, where the author points out that it is necessary to operate more not with causes, but with factors. On this path, three erroneous judgments of systems thinking in the context of cause-and-effect relationships also stand out, in particular:

Cause and effect are separable in time, the second follows the first (in fact, they constitute one entity, and the cause smoothly flows into the effect, or even is it).
In time and space, the effect follows immediately after the cause (delay factor).
The effect is proportional to the cause (often a small thing leads to enormous consequences) [I. McDermott, J. O'Connor, 2020].

These and many other topics, aspects and skills of systems thinking (for example, the butterfly effect, formal logic, recursion, limiting mental models, etc.) are covered further in The Art of Systems Thinking... We advise you to refer to the book to learn more new and interesting. And we would like to share how to still develop systems thinking if you feel that you are lacking it.

Business game Beer Game

The Beer Distribution Game was originally developed by John Sterman, a professor at Sloan University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Here we model the supply chain of beer products, where 4 parties are involved: the brewery as a manufacturer, and then: the distributor, the distribution center (DC) and the retail store.

During the Beer Game, in each round (which simulates 1 week), customers make a purchase of a product from a retailer. The purchase volume is determined by the card of the corresponding round. Then the seller, in order to maintain product stocks in his warehouse, creates an independent order in the distribution center. Next, the DC independently forms an order for the Distributor, and this company sends a request to Production. At the beginning of the game, the position of all elements of the system is balanced. Each local warehouse of the system has the necessary stock of products, 12 cases each. During the first few rounds, the volumes are agreed upon and amount to 4 cases/week. The goal of each team is to ensure uninterrupted product availability at the retailer for 40 weeks while achieving minimum costs for their team. The total costs in the team are determined by the formula - if there is a product in each link of the supply system, the costs are $0.5 per case, if there is a shortage of product in any link of the order volume, the costs are $1.0/case. In accordance with the real behavior of dynamic systems, the business game implements the nonlinear nature of the business system. If the flow of information occurs quickly, then there is a natural delay in product deliveries - 2 weeks, both for brewing new beer and for the supply of cases for each element of the system. Essentially, participants need to provide demand forecasting of order quantities and production to avoid costly product stockouts and ensure the smooth operation of a given supply chain. There are no other additional restrictions in a business simulation. There are no restrictions on production volume, no limits on financing, and no difficulties with personnel or delivery systems [5]. The only question is what kind of experience the participants in this business simulation will gain for themselves.

Beer Game Results

The business game Beer Game allows participants to expand their own mental models, which are used to understand actually occurring processes in systems, and to study the following important aspects of the behavior of dynamic systems:

The influence of feedback systems on the overall behavior of the system. Features of the influence of a reinforcing feedback loop that forms a significant change in the state of the system;
The emergence of the effect of the “Limit to Growth” system and the manifestation of a balancing feedback loop in a dynamic system;
Formation of a phase delay in the behavior of the system, when the order level can significantly shift from the actual need of the product in the system.

Description of the business game Beer Game is available on the page: https://grow-time.ru/growth/games Contents of the training program for the development of systems thinking, https://grow-time.ru/growth/trainings#managerCompetenceLink

Development of systems thinking

Before you start training systems thinking, we advise you to take a test that will show whether it is worth doing it at all - perhaps your systems thinking is already well developed (although additional, so to speak, preventative training will not be superfluous). Among the recommendations, we offer you a test from the “Russia – Land of Opportunities” platform, where you can log in using a social network or registration, and from another employment platform TestOnJob, where taking the test is free.

So, there are several ways to unlock potential and develop systems thinking:

Expanding your horizons and erudition

It is no coincidence that we put this method in first place. The more educational, communicative, and experiential experience you receive, the wider you expand the boundaries of your consciousness. Meet interesting people, travel, read good quality literature, acquire new skills, take up an additional hobby, learn languages - do more new things!

For what? The answer is simple: this is all experience that allows you to understand the diversity of the world and the patterns of its functioning. Systems thinking is akin to interdisciplinarity, contiguity of subject areas, and the more core and non-core competencies you gain, the easier it will be for you to navigate the world of systems.

Collapse of stereotypes

J. O'Connor and I. McDermott also write about this. All of us, one way or another, are shrouded in a set of stereotypes that prevent us from living. A stereotype is an established belief about a phenomenon, developed on the basis of previous experience.

The problem with stereotypes is that they will prevent you from being effective in difficult situations that sometimes require taking risks, because stereotypes are a form of rigid and conservative thinking. Innovation and creativity are difficult for people with stereotypical thinking, which becomes an obstacle to the formation of systemic thinking.

Studying successful cases

Surely the thought has crossed your mind to watch a film about a person or read a biographical book. It's unlikely that this idea was associated with a failed project or a problematic project with a disastrous outcome, and rightly so.

By paying attention to illustrative cases from practice, you willy-nilly learn from good experience, remember what is correct, study the positive factors that led to success, and compare them with negative ones that could have a negative impact and lead to disastrous consequences. Therefore, learn from good examples, read success stories - both of individual people and their work together.

Development of creativity

An indispensable tool for the development of systems thinking is the ability to think outside the box, to look for different approaches to parsing an object into its component parts and subsequent synthesis. How to develop creative thinking is indicated in our article “Techniques for developing creativity.” We recommend that you familiarize yourself with the techniques and begin interesting and exciting brain training [E. Zibrova, 2020].

By introducing these recommendations into your daily practice, you will unconditionally achieve developed systems thinking. Also remember that you can know a lot of efficiency improvement techniques, such as SWOT analysis, AGILE approach, Eisenhower matrix, Osterwalder business model, etc., but endlessly rushing from one to another is far from an option, much less not an indicator of developed systems thinking. The main thing is to be able to choose the right tool in a specific situation, recognizing problematic factors as symptoms that require the right approach to treatment.

However, not all scientists agree with the undeniable effectiveness of the systems approach. Let's see what disadvantages can be seen in this type of thinking.

System properties

Let us examine several basic properties of systems that are recognized as correct in most sources.

The system consists of elements.
Elements must interact with each other.
Together they, as a system, perform some useful function. If you change something in the interaction scheme, the composition of the elements, the system will begin to change, and its main function will also change.

A systematic approach is definitely needed in management. It can be used in the process and project approach, strategic management, and organizational design. Any functional area in a company - finance, personnel, marketing - requires a systematic approach when reaching the very minimum level of management.

Criticism of systems thinking

Is systems thinking really so universal and undeniably useful? As a rule, yes, because there is nothing wrong with structuring and bringing to order and consistency. Nevertheless, the Chinese economist Wei-Bing Zhang, in his monograph on synergetic economics, reflects on the topic of system analysis and comes to the conclusion that this type of analysis “deliberately presupposes sustainability. In this respect it is still within the framework of traditional economics” [W.-B. Zhang, 1999].

These words can be interpreted as follows: in order to analyze a phenomenon from the point of view of systems thinking (systems analysis), it must be relatively stable and sustainable. Indeed, it is difficult to dissect a constantly changing structure, much less draw conclusions about what factors influence it. However, the whole point is that nothing is sustainable in life, and this is proven even more by the modern world.

What to do? The answer on the surface is to adapt. We cannot stop the flow of changes that occur literally every second. And even in such conditions, systems thinking can be an excellent method for conducting qualitative analysis with the right conclusions. Do you agree?

And before moving on to the conclusion, we suggest taking a screening test to consolidate your knowledge:

Now let's summarize.

How to develop

Systems thinking can be developed. The simplest way to train is to select an arbitrary object to study. It can be anything: a material object, a physiological feature of the body, a thriving business, a natural phenomenon. The selected object should be comprehensively studied, identifying all its interacting particles and elements, determining direct and feedback connections between them.

The wider a person’s range of interests, the better his brain functions. Enriching your horizons, you should subject each new knowledge to scrupulous analysis: disassemble it into elements and put it together into a whole. This way you can discover new talents and abilities, enrich your own life and, perhaps, even make the world a better place.

Literature

Fayol A., General and industrial management
. – M., 2000
Senge Peter M., The Fifth Discipline. The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization . – MYTH Business, 2018
Joseph O'Connor, Ian McDermott, The Art of Systems Thinking . – Alpina Publisher, 2018
Lominger Competency Library, FYI® For Your Improvement , https://www.kornferry.com/fyi-resources
Flight Simulators for Management Education, "The Beer Game", Prof.
John D. Sterman, MIT, https://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/SDG/beergame.html
Official website of Cesim, https://www.cesim.com/ru/home

Appendix 1. Lominger competency group “Ability to make complex decisions”

Quality of decision making

As the compilers of the competence rightly note, any “decision can be correct only in a given period of time... No one can be right always and in everything.” The standard level for a given quality is considered when:

The employee offers informed decisions based on a combination of analysis, common sense, experience and insight
Most of the proposed solutions can be implemented in the allotted time
People around them turn to the employee for advice and solutions.

Intellectual potential

Success both in work and in life strongly depends on the acquired knowledge and skills and their use to solve problems and difficult life situations. Norm level for competence:

Having good intellectual abilities
The employee is given mental work, including complex work.
The employee is characterized as an observant, smart, intellectually gifted person.

Ability to “grab on the fly”

For most people, it is not difficult to solve problems that they have already encountered before. It is much more difficult to analyze problems in new contexts and in the format of applying solutions that differ from the past. It requires the ability to discard past experiences, quickly see the essence of the situation, and use a new approach. Norm level for competence:

Learns quickly when solving new problems
Constantly learns new things in different areas
Analyzes both successes and failures in search of improvement
Ready to experiment, use available tools to find a solution
Ready to take on difficult and unfamiliar tasks
Quickly grasps the essence and hidden structure of the phenomenon being studied

Problem solving

Why are people often unsuccessful at solving problems? Typical thinking traps are jumping to conclusions; not studying the problem properly, collecting superficial, most accessible information; do not take into account what other opportunities and risks there are. Standard level for competence, employee:

Uses all available sources to find answers
Applies a rigorous logical approach to solutions
Can see hidden problems
Excellent at objective analysis and use of analysis tools
He is not content with the obvious and does not stop when he receives a “raw” answer.